Everyone's been talking theoretically about the everlasting legacy of Bush(es) nomination of conservative judges with an eye to overturning Roe.  One of the Fundies' strategies is death by a thousand cuts -- make acquiring an abortion so burdensome that it is not attainable at all.

A main battleground is South Dakota -- and South Dakota is well on its way to making all abortions illegal in the state.  Follow me after the jump to read about the latest barrier that has just been ruled constitutional.  It goes without saying that other states will now pass similar laws.

With 35 Senate seats being contested this year (33 plus 2 special elections), Democrats have only 4 female candidates: Jeanne Shaheen (NH), Kay Hagan (NC), Vivian Figures (AL) and incumbent Sen. Mary Landrieu (LA). That's a shamefully low number. The Republicans only have 2 incumbents, Elizabeth Dole (NC) and Susan Collins (ME), and one sole challenger, Christine O'Donnell (DE).

Overall, this is not a great year for women in the U.S. Senate. The overall outcome will be somewhere between minus 2 and plus 4 female Senators. The most likely outcome is somewhere between minus 1 and plus 1.

So, let's look ahead to 2010. Specifically, to which Democratic female politicians might or should run for the U.S. Senate in 2010.

I haven't been able to work on my maps as much as usual, so this is going to be a relatively quick update diary compared to normal, which just two maps: a weighted version that uses the Iowa and Nevada county conventions in place of the caucuses (this makes a big difference for Iowa, not so much for Nevada) and a ratio map, which just includes Clinton's vote in Michigan.  I added Puerto Rico to the weighted map, but not yet to the ratio map.

Color swaps are at the bottom of the diary.  For an explanation of what these maps mean, such as the coloration and brightness, see my last update.

[Update] I do want to be clear that this is a primary map and has nothing to do with the general election race directly.  In the large maps, Clinton is red, Edwards is green, and Obama is blue.  In the color swap maps below, that color code changes.

Results are finalized in the Western states now, of course:

California

CA-04: Conservative Icon Tom McClintock beat Doug Ose by a fairly comfortable margin, 54% to 39%, after a nasty primary (McClintock's races generally are nasty).

The Conservative Icon now faces down Democrat Charlie Brown, who nearly won the district in 2006 against the scandal-ridden John Doolittle. McClintock is an unabashed extremist, and carpetbagged 400 miles to run in this district, and I am certainly glad that he and not Ose is the nominee against Brown.

CA-26: After an embarrassing primary loss in 2006, Russ Warner has redeemed himself with a commanding victory over 2006 candidate Cynthia Matthews. Warner enjoys the backing of the national and state Democratic establishments, and faces powerful Republican David Dreier in the general.

CA-24: Both Jill Martinez and Mary Pallant wound up on the losing end of this primary race, to Marta Ann Jorgensen.

CA-42: Kossack Ron Shepston sadly fell short in his bid for the Democratic nomination, as he finished third with 25%. Ed Chau will be the Democratic nominee against Gary Miller.

New Mexico

NM-Sen: With 99% of results in, it appears Steve Pearce has won a squeaker over Heather Wilson in the Republican primary for US Senate, 51% to 49%.

Democrat Tom Udall ran unopposed, and has a commanding lead over Pearce going into the general.

NM-01: Unsurprisingly, Democrat Martin Heinrich and Republican Darren White are the nominees in New Mexico's First District.

White is one of the Republicans' best recruits this cycle. That usually isn't saying much, but there's a tough race ahead for Heinrich. Best of luck to him.

NM-02: Democrat Harry Teague, backed by Bill Richardson, narrowly won his primary over Bill McCamley. He faces GOP nominee Ed Tinsley in the general, and he has been quoted pretty good odds despite the district's Republican tilt.

NM-03: In this solidly Democratic district, Ben Ray Lujan won the nomination over Don Wiviott, and will almost certainly be the district's next Representative.

Montana

No one was expecting fireworks in Montana's downticket primaries, but it seems that things have gone rather awry.

The Republican nominee against Sen. Max Baucus is a perennial candidate who makes John McCain look like a kid. More on this from Georgia10.

Meanwhile, the Democratic nominee against Rep. Denny Rehberg is...well, a perennial candidate who makes McCain look like a kid. His name is John Driscoll, and he did serve as Montana House Speaker...back in the 1970s.

Somewhere, the ghost of Fred Tuttle is smiling.

South Dakota

As expected, State Rep. Joel Dykstra will be the man who goes down to a crushing defeat at the hands of Senator Tim Johnson.

Race tracker wiki: NM-Sen NM-01 NM-02 NM-03 CA-04 CA-24 CA-42 MT-Sen MT-AL SD-Sen

Within the past month I put forth 19 polls with 15 candidates each to figure out who you guys want in an Obama cabinet. With voting in all rounds now over I compiled five different cabinets and will put them all up for a vote this week.

Who got included in the final cabinets: the top three in each poll automatically made it into these final cabinet polls, in some cases also the 4th and 5th. However, to make sure that the cabinets are as diverse as possible I gave some candidates who didn't have enough votes a wildcard.

Each day this week you can rate a cabinet. Today, you can rate a possible Obama/Richardson cabinet on a scale from 1 (hate it) to 10 (love it). At the end I will post the results and the cabinet with the highest average wins.

I'm still coming off a high from last night, when Barack Obama won the Democratic party's nomination for president.  Even Hillary's lack of respect for Obama and his supporters -- and the media's decision to focus as much attention on Hillary's desperate VP ploy as on Obama's historic win -- couldn't dampen my enthusiasm.  After chasing superdelegate numbers for much of the day yesterday, I thought it would be helpful, in the stark reality of a new day, to look at the latest numbers from the nomination fight and from last night's final two primary contests.  It might help Hillary and the media get a grip on reality if they pay close attention to the hard facts.

UPDATED

Following a successful primary campaign in the South Dakota Democratic Primary, Senator Rodham Clinton delivered a non-concession speech at the Baruch College gym. The Baruch College event was attended by a large crowd of Clinton supporters who were denied access to news of Senator Obama's win of the Democratic nomination because of the abbsence of  TV monitors.

In her speech, Senator Clinton she emphasized that she had won more votes in primaries and caucuses than Obama, and she refused to say she was ending her campaign. She also hailed Senator Barack Obama and his supporters for an extraordinary race but stopped short of recognizing his victory in the race for their party's presidential nomination.

Moreover, Clinton told supporters that she would consult Party leaders in coming days on how to move forward, but that, "I will be making no decisions tonight." She also urged her supporters who chanted, "Denver, Denver, Denver" that they should write-in to her Website and offer suggestions on policy issues she should focus on this fall.

John McCain has reason to celebrate.

Sure, his speech, um, sucked.

Yeah, his ideas are as tired as the people watching his speech.

Yeah, his campaign is going to be as anemic as his ideas.

But it's time to party down because Buffalo County, South Dakota, came through big for McCain.  He won 47%-42%.

CNN calls SD for Clinton. Putting in the time paid dividends for Hillary, while Obama was out campaigning in general election states. Good for her.

Just because we all know where the real action is, here's the current results from CNN on the closed South Dakota Republican Primary. With 5% results in so far, non-candidate Ron Paul is in at 19%, non-candidate Mike Huckabee at 10%, and the current challenger for Number One Loser In The General, John McCain coming in with a respectable two thirds of the vote.  

I'll put a couple updates up as more comes in.

The question of the night is, what the f#&* are three percent of the Republicans waiting for? Uncommitted? At this point, why even show up?

Final update: 90% in, Uncommitted at 3%

CNN Results over the fold, updates throughout this long, long night.

From CNN -- Sen. Barack Obama has clinched the Democratic nomination for president, according to CNN estimates, making him the first African-American in U.S. history to lead a major-party ticket.

Obama picked up a slew of superdelegate endorsements on Tuesday. Those endorsements, combined with the delegates he's projected to receive from South Dakota's primary, will put him past the 2,118 threshold, according to CNN estimates.

This morning I cast my ballot for Barack Obama in Vermillion, South Dakota after sending a round of text messages to my friends reminding them to do the same, and after 2 hours of GOTV canvassing. I can say with pride that my vote pushed him over the threshold tonight. Such a poetic moment...

It's the 3d of June, 2008.  Mattering states are voting.

On this day in history, nearly 40 years to the day of one of the country's darkest moments, Barack Obama has secured enough delegates to clinch the Democratic Party nomination for President of the United States of America, this land that we love.

Barack Obama.

A skinny kid with a funny name who believed that this country had a place for him too.

As its leader.

As a leader who will talk to this country as if we were adults, who will be honest with it.  Who will be transparent.  Who will work hard to inspire participation by the formerly cynical in our society for all our mutual benefit.  Who will change the image of America for a world desperate for us to be our best selves.

For we are our brothers' keepers.  We are our sisters' keepers.

When that man, in 2004, got up and spoke those words, I saw a president.

Those words, of the deepest progressive and spiritual values, are the direct rebuttal to Reagan's "government is not the solution to our problems, government is the problem."  Barack Obama will provide language for countless, less powerfully speaking Democrats to run for office in coming decades.

This is a leader who matters.

10:00 PM: Montana polls close. Obama declared the winner.

9:41 PM: Congrats Don Bivens of Arizona.  You put Obama over the line.

9:22 PM: Clinton wins South Dakota.

9:00 PM: Final South Dakota polls close. Meanwhile McCain yaps on.  MSNBC says too early to call but leans Clinton.  Haha, and MSNBC cut McCain short

8:52 PM: McCain: Peace causes war while war prevents war.

8:49 PM: McCain not only says he supports The Surge, he's actually taking credit for the very idea.  Good luck with that.

8:38 PM: McCain tells New Orelans to eat cake speaks in New Orleans.

This might be a late night as South Dakota doesn't close the last of it's polls until 9:00 PM Eastern, while Montana doesn't close until 10:00 PM Eastern.

Early exits (especially ones released three hours before polls close) are dicey, but if we can believe Fox, Clinton will squeak out a win in South Dakota.

Fox has men going 52/48 for Clinton, and women going 57/43 for her. They're tied on which candidate "shares your values." Clinton won late deciders 62-38. If she wins, she was put over the top by her last-week, positive campaigning.

Today's the South Dakota Democratic primary, and there would be no better place for Democratic presidential candidate Senator Barack Obama to announce this choice for his running mate: former South Dakota Senator George S. McGovern.

McGovern was right about Vietnam and Iraq. He spoke out in 1965 for recognition of the Cuban government, saying that sanctions wouldn't work to bring down the Castro regime. He advocated opening relations with China years before Henry Kissinger made his secret trips for President Richard Nixon. He's been a ceaseless advocate for ending poverty and hunger around the world, something that was recognized by President John F. Kennedy when he gave McGovern the reins of the Food for Peace office. He tried to warn the American public about Nixon's role in the Watergate affair even before the 1972 election, but the voters didn't listen.

Ok, this is what is really going on today.  Hillary's campaign was prepared to concede tonight.  She had already begun preparing concession remarks.  Then they got word out of South Dakota pointing not just to a Hillary win, but a BIG Hillary win (20+) points  *via drudge- who has been spot on in the past few contests with Clinton campaign leaks.

So they took the concession speech off the table.  They think they can use the big win (and upset) in South Dakota to be major leveraging power for her.  She will insist on the VP spot and point to the fact that he has been mortally wounded as he crosses the finish line. (A wound which she has helped to inflict).

She will go after Obama's supers and point to his poor performance in South Dakota.  

Two important states in the history of the people-powered movement. In June (or so) of 2004, we helped Stephanie Herseth win her House special election by raising over $100,000 for her effort -- a significant marker in the growth of our movement. Montana, of course, is a favorite state of mine, and one in which we notched dramatic gains in 2006 with Jon Tester's improbable primary and general election victories. (I look forward to promoting Gov. Brian Schweitzer's 2016 presidential run!)

In any case, how about pulling some numbers out of you-know-where? The polling has been sparse. South Dakota only has one recent poll, from crappy ARG which predicts a 60-34 Clinton victory. either ARG will once again confirm their eternal craptitude (my bet), or they will look golden. We'll know tonight.

Montana also has a crappy ARG poll, but also a Mason-Dixon poll from two weeks ago. A little dated, probably, but at least M-D is a solid polling outfit.

Around the web:

PsiFighter37 stuck with just delegate projections, skipping any guesses as to the popular vote. Wimp!

I'm torn. On paper these are pretty good Obama states. However, as this nomination has been wrapped up, Obama supporters seem to be staying home while Clinton supporters appear to be coming out in greater numbers to embarrass Obama and try and save their favorite candidate (especially since the Clinton camp did a fantastic job of making their supporters believe that they still had a chance). So I'm torn on whether to give Clinton a boost based on those trends. Further compounding things, Hillary made ten stops in South Dakota while Obama made just a handful (he's been in "general election" mode). That will boost her numbers, at least in South Dakota. And will Native Americans, a strong Obama constituency, turn out? Like most minority groups, their electoral participation has been historically weak.

So some things to consider. In any case, here are my numbers, pulled out of you-know-where. Take them seriously at your own peril.

In delegates, Obama will likely exit the night with 16-18 delegates. And by winning Montana, as SusanG notes below, Obama will also get the super delegate votes of Gov. Brian Schweitzer, Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester, as well as the state party chair and vice-chair, giving Obama a +5 delegate "bonus" for winning the state. That would put Obama at +21-23 for the night, which means he needs another 16 or so supers to close out the night with the necessary delegates to officially declare victory.

There's a couple of vote things going on in South Dakota & Montana today, in case you didn't remember. I thought I'd write this diary today as a semi-open thread about the primaries today and any interesting tidbits and stories about South Dakota & Montana.

As far as "interesting tidbits and stories," I actually have a ton. Growing up, whenever the family got into our version of "the family truckster" to go on vacation, Dad always had to go West. So, I've been to Mt. Rushmore, the Badlands, the Black Hills, Custer Battle Field, Glacier National Park, and Yellowstone National Park more times than I can remember.