Caucus Mania: Why it's good that Edwards is 3rd in the polls

This is gonna be a short diary.  But it's a point I feel I need to make.  Going into Iowa, some polls...the ones being aired on news programs...are showing Obama ahead in Iowa, with Clinton and Edwards in 2nd and 3rd respectively.  (Though practically tied, with 1% seperating the two)

If Edwards comes in first or second, he would thereby exceed expectations and be seen as gaining momentum in Iowa.  Even if he comes in 3rd, he would meet expectations. Meanwhile, Obama has much to lose, perceptionwise, if he comes in second to Clinton or Edwards.

We learned with Dean in 2004 that the key to winning in Iowa is picking up the non-viable candidates supporters.  While Kucinich is urging his supporters to caucus for Obama (this time around) if he is non-viable, there are 3 other candidates who have some support in Iowa whose supporters could impact which of the three top contenders comes out on top.

And the key to doing that is having precinct captains trained in the art of persuading others to choose their candidate as second choice.  The Dean campaign learned in 2004 that its precinct organizers were less experienced in doing this and were not as effective as the Kerry captains.

I am quite curious to see how effective of an organization Obama has built in Iowa.  And how many of Edwards captains are seasoned from 2004. Tonight, we will know who will get the results that will boost their campaigns and who will get disappointing results that may dog their campaign.  Hillary coming in third may hurt her, while fourth would be a devastating blow.

And of course, the almighty media and how they spin the results, will also have a huge effect.  Where in 2004, they used the results and the "Scream" footage to torpedo the Dean campaign, they are already playing Iowa in such a way to diminish its importance.  I find this very interesting and am curious to see how this plays out.  Who does the media want to win? Obama or Clinton?

Having watched the dearth of democracy that is the caucuses in 2004 on C-Span Live....I urge you all to take a good look at this bizarre system of wheeling and dealing....and serious peer pressure...tonight on C-Span, particularly if you have never seen the caucus before.

http://www.c-span.org/

No matter what the results and how they affect the outcome of the nomination process, we all need to know what the Iowa caucus is all about.

We also all need to be aware of which candidate(s) the MSM will choose to torpedo with their coverage.  No matter who anyone prefers, we all need to be vigilant in holding the media accountable for any manipulation of the public's perceptions of any of the three candidates.

All any of us want is fair coverage.